March 2010, US News & World Report:
10 Housing Markets for the Next Decade.....
Not far from Colorado's breath-taking Rocky Mountain National Park are the neighboring cities of Fort Collins and Loveland. Thanks to Colorado State University research, local support, and private investment, this area of roughly 300,000 residents is evolving into a leading center for traditional and renewable energy. Home prices in the Fort Collins-Loveland area should rise an average of nearly 4 percent annually over the next 10 years, Moody's Economy.com projects.
Region's residential sales a mixed bag in February
Northern Colorado residential real estate sales data for February indicate a mixed bag of good news/bad news, according to reports released Thursday by Loveland-based Information Real Estate Services.
Despite February being a short month, there were 142 sold listings in Fort Collins during the month compared to 101 in January. The Loveland-Berthoud market also improved in February with 80 sold listings compared to 57 in January. The Greeley-Evans market held steady with 79 sold listings for each month.
In Fort Collins, the average number of days on the market for homes sold in February was 124, up from 119 in January. But the median sales price improved dramatically, rising from $215,000 in January to $241,500 in February.
In Loveland-Berthoud, the average number of days on the market fell to 125 from 133 in January. However, the median sales price also fell from $195,000 in January to $192,500 in February.
In the Greeley-Evans market, the average number of days on the market fell from 87 in January to 82 in February and the median sales price rose from $123,500 in January to $133,500 in February.
January 13, 2010. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, has these comments about the 2010 forecast:
Your local area is holding on better in terms of jobs but new home construction has collapsed to the point where it can only rise. Here is the data.
Larimer County - 6,000 fewer jobs now from peak. Unemployment rate at 5.7%
Weld County - also 6,000 fewer jobs from peak. Unemployment rate at 7.7%
The natl. jobless rate is 10% so what you have is not good, but not as bad as most parts of the country.
Regarding new home construction:
Larimer County - took out 450 permits in 2009, much below the 3000 to 3,500 per year in normal years
Weld County - took out 800 permits in 2009, much below 4,500 per year in normal years.
This suggests to me that there could be a housing shortage once the economy turns around and jobs are created. Most economists anticipate job growth from spring, and definitely by the second of the year. So the housing demand should be coming around from job support just as the Homebuyer Tax Credit comes to an end. But mortgage rates are likely to be a bit higher - something closer to 6% from current 5%.
The broad Fort Collins, Loveland, and Greeley region experienced a modest price decline in the low single-digits in 2009, but is poised for an increase because of drastic reduction in new construction and anticipated job growth.
All-in-all, I expect unit sales to be up by 15% in 2010 and home values up by 3%.
January 10, 2010. Fort Collins Coloradoan
The number of homes sold in 2009 dropped 6.9 percent from the previous year to a total of 2,907 which is off almost 30 percent from the peak of 4,100 sales just five years ago and the lowest total since 1995.
| 2008 | 2009 | % Inc | |||
| Homes | Avg Price | Homes | Avg Price | Homes | |
| January | 158 | 254431 | 140 | 254141 | -0.127 |
| February | 180 | 257371 | 131 | 249025 | -0.272 |
| March | 262 | 259654 | 196 | 235326 | -0.263 |
| April | 297 | 248563 | 230 | 248418 | -0.239 |
| May | 361 | 244067 | 267 | 258448 | -0.263 |
| June | 411 | 249115 | 346 | 229919 | -0.163 |
| July | 359 | 249381 | 382 | 237698 | 0.061 |
| August | 326 | 252321 | 289 | 227314 | -0.12 |
| September | 241 | 265049 | 250 | 241411 | 0.037 |
| October | 200 | 241454 | 289 | 237765 | 0.445 |
| November | 147 | 240175 | 212 | 227610 | 0.442 |
| December | 181 | 256121 | 175 | 244706 | -0.033 |
| YTD | 3123 | 250970 | 2907 | 239387 | -0.069 |
The 4.6 percent drop in average selling price is just the second decline since our records started in 1976. The previous declince was in 2008 when prices dropped 1 percent from 2007.
So there have been two price declines in a row and the current average selling price of $239,387 means that there has been less than 4 percent total appreciation in the last five years.
Now for the good news. Sales in the last quarter of the year were up 28 percent, albeit compared to 2008 when sales were down 18 percent from the previous year.
Still, it put the brakes on double-digit percentage decreases we experienced for much of 2008 and 2009. At the end of September 2009, sales were down 14.6 percent and on pace for 2,600 to 2,700 sales for the year so the results in October and November were particularly gratifying.
Fourth quarter sales were heavily weighted to lower priced homes, mainly due to the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit which was due to expire Nov. 30.
Sales of homes priced under $250,000 were up 36 percent compared to the same quarter last year and accounted for two thirds of all home sales.
The median selling price for the year was down 4.5 percent to $210,000 so this was right in line with decrease in the average selling price.
The home sales that closed in December were on the market for an average of 130 days which is up substantially from the 119-day figure for November sales but the final figure for 2009 was 113 days compared to 112 days last year.
The number of active listings took a big drop with just 1,372 homes on the market at the end of December, down from 1,539 at the end of November and 1,499 homes on the market at the end of 2008.
More good news is that the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit has been extended to include homes placed under contract by April 30 and closed by June 30. Plus there is now a $6,500 tax credit available to qualified repeat home buyers.
Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates are still near 5 percent and prices have not shown any appreciation for several years, making this an ideal time to be a home buyer.
You have heard the old adage "what goes up must come down," but we think it also works in reverse, particularly in real estate. How about "what goes down must go up" and, in this market, we believe that is going to happen sooner rather than later.
For more information on how to get started and for details on the available home buyer tax credits, call a real estate professional today.
